Monday, June 05, 2006

Turning Pro, Part II

My last post was cut short by the bell (Like I'm going to stay at school 1 min. later than I have too. :) ) Basically I was saying that I would have to run really well and get lucky in order to turn pro. When you add in all the retirement benefits of teaching, it would be stupid of me to quit without winning at least a million in some tourney.

So let's take a look at a more realistic scenery. I main goal is to live comfortably and within our means. If I have to work a real job, I want one that is not very demanding and I like to have a lot of time off. Well teachers are not paid a lot, and especially if you go to a more suburban school or private school there is no way to make as much as I do now teaching in an Urban environment.

What my main realistic goal for poker is to make enough where I could take a job at a school with less demanding students (well they would be a little more demanding, at least the administration and parents, when it comes to academics, but that is easy enough to handle when you have compendent students, teachers, administration and parents.) So how is this to be done?

In order for this not to happen, I would have to go on the worst run of my poker career. That's not to say I will meet each of these milestones when I say I will. These #s take into consideration major downswings, I expect some months to be higher some lower. Varinence is a bitch. But like I said, these numbers are pretty conservative (at least at the limits I play right now) given my historical performance.

June 1st, Bankroll 1800
playing some 25NL 6max, hopefully moving up to 50NL by the last week when I will be done with school. approx. 5K hands, 10BB/100 + bonus = $500

July 1st, Bankroll 2300
playing 50NL 6 max and full ring, taking shots at 100NL by the end of the month
25K hands, 10BB/100 + bonus = 1.5K

Aug. 1st, Bankroll 3K (Savings 800 + 1K already there = 1800)
playing 50NL 6 max (moving up by the end of the month) and 100NL full ring
25K hands, 10BB/100 + bonus = 2K

Sept. 1st Bankroll 3.8K (Savings 2K) 1K for bills
playing 100NL 6 max and full ring
10K hands, 10BB/100 + bonus = 1.3K

Oct. 1st Bankroll 4.1K (savings 2K) 1K for bills
playing 100NL 6 max and full ring
10K hands, 10BB/100 + bonus = 1.3K

continue this throughout the school year, the 2K in savings is so that if I have a down month, I still have money to help out with expenses. Remember this is an average based of my data. Most months I expect to do better than 10BB/100.

Nov. 4.4K, Dec. 4.7K, Jan. 2007 5K somewhere in the next couple of months make the jump to 200NL, but to continue to be conservative, I will use the same #s until the summer.

July 1st 8K
playing 200NL, 25k hands, 8BB/100 + bonus = approx 4K a month

If I can make it to this point, poker will enable me to pretty much work any type teaching job. So I should know after this summer. If I don't make it, it's off to plan B, (as in B for Bankruptcy....)

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